Study of the operational risk of 3166 local governments in Hungary between 2003 and 2012 : loss and risk aversion in state-financial decisions

Kozma, Gábor: Study of the operational risk of 3166 local governments in Hungary between 2003 and 2012 : loss and risk aversion in state-financial decisions. New Ideas in a Changing World of Business Managament and Marketing. pp. 173-185. (2015)

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Abstract

In the process of shaping up the theoretical framework, we substituted operational incomes and expenditures into the value function of prospect theory. By this we achieved that the results of economic psychological research concerning loss and risk aversion could also be applied in the analysis of state financial decisions. Discretionary decisions can be placed in distinct reference frameworks on the side of both incomes and expenditures. Decisions made in risky situations can be analysed with both utility axioms and in the conceptual framework of psychological value. Because of the properties of the operational system of the modern state, we gave preference to the psychological approach of the behavioural economics. By this approach, we determined the theoretical value of the operational risk of discretionary decisions, which we interpreted as inherent risk and, in the course of an empirical study; we made it correspond to the experiential values. Instead of the macroeconomic level of the state’s role-taking and operational risk, we have focussed our research on the system of subnational governments. Wide and detailed secondary data are available about Hungarian local governments, so we carried out our research on a large number of these. Virtually, based on treasury date, we studied 3166 Hungarian local governments in the period between 2003 and 2012. The result of the statistical analysis is the fact that Hungarian local governments made their financial and budgetary decisions by taking considerable risk concerning their environment. The local governmental level treated their uncertain operational environments in a risk-preferring manner and the established level of risk relatable to discretionary decisions between 2003 and 2012 came to over the theoretical value in the vast number of Hungarian local governments studied.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: New Ideas in a Changing World of Business Managament and Marketing
Date: 2015
Page Range: pp. 173-185
Uncontrolled Keywords: Önkormányzat - Magyarország - 21. sz., Statisztikai elemzés
Additional Information: Bibliogr.: p. 184-185. ; összefoglalás angol nyelven
Date Deposited: 2019. May. 29. 08:21
Last Modified: 2019. May. 29. 08:21
URI: http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/id/eprint/57777

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