Application of microsimulation models in the Hungarian Central Statistical Office

Kővári, Zsolt: Application of microsimulation models in the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. In: Proceedings of the Challenges for Analysis of the Economy, the Businesses, and Social Progress : International Scientific Conference Szeged, November 19-21, 2009. pp. 1017-1028. (2010)

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Abstract

In this article I would like to present a static microsimulation model developed in the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO), which was used primarily for household’s incomes study. This model was intended for a first step of a greater research, thus we worked with the simplest tools. The items of household’s incomes were aged, for this the data were gained from the Household Budget Survey (HBS). We were looking for an answer by the method of the microsimulation to the question how exact and reliable result can be produced from a base year for the following year by a static model based on the data of the HBS comparing to the real data. We would like to demonstrate further by some impact analysis whether the models is suitable for analytical presentation of the consequences of economic and political decisions. The result proved that the method operated well concerning the most important income items. The gross income and its parts, the incomes from work and social incomes were successfully estimated with sufficient accuracy. At those cases where there are considerably differences between the estimated and measured values, however those are interesting from theoretical point of view, in reality they are insignificant small values affecting only few people. The impact analysis is considered also successfully, since its results were as expected, well interpretable and they were in conformity to the measured real values.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the Challenges for Analysis of the Economy, the Businesses, and Social Progress : International Scientific Conference Szeged, November 19-21, 2009
Date: 2010
ISBN: 978-963-06-9558-9
Page Range: pp. 1017-1028
Related URLs: http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/57418/
Uncontrolled Keywords: Szimulációs modell - statisztika - háztartási
Additional Information: Bibliogr.: 1028. p. ; összefoglalás angol nyelven
Date Deposited: 2019. May. 15. 07:48
Last Modified: 2020. Apr. 14. 14:45
URI: http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/id/eprint/57855

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