Has macroeconomic imbalance procedure managed to reduce imbalances and reduce economic crises in EU countries?

Végh Marcell Zoltán: Has macroeconomic imbalance procedure managed to reduce imbalances and reduce economic crises in EU countries?

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Abstract

The European Union has suffered a prolonged crisis episode due to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, followed by an economic crisis and a sovereign debt crisis in various Member States. Robust, pre-crisis economic growth has failed to recover ever since and levels of unemployment have remained high, thus economic performance is struggling to reach precrisis levels in what is called periphery countries. Common institutions have been improved through several important changes in terms of fiscal and monetary policies as well, resulting in a preferable, more stable economic structure. To ensure balanced economic growth, the European Commission has launched a monitoring system containing 14 indicators and a corrective operation (Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure) which aims to reduce economic imbalances in Member States. This tool, complementing the regulations of the Stability and Growth Pact, may help to reduce the evolution of further crises and to establish a more sustainable economic growth rate. However, Member States do not react the same way. In this study, Macroeconomic Imbalance Scorecard data is examined to establish a connection between imbalances and economic growth. The study investigates whether all 14 indicators have relevance, or whether some indicators could be eliminated due to correlation within the data set. Then it also aims to identify those indicators which have greater relevance to estimate the probability of a crisis, in order to describe which imbalances lead to higher probability of a crisis event in the short term. Fighting these imbalances with the tools of the MIP could safeguard economic growth in the EU. In order to achieve all this, crosscorrelation and logistic regression methods are suggested. In the future, having extended timeseries database will probably allow the running of even more elaborate statistic examinations and achieving more complex results.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Heading title: Finance
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the Central European PhD Workshop on Technological Change and Development
Date: 2020
Volume: 4
ISBN: 978-963-306-741-3
Page Range: pp. 258-274
Language: English
Publisher: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Doctoral School in Economics
Place of Publication: Szeged
Event Title: Central European PhD Workshop on Technological Change and Development
Event Type: Conference
Event Location: Szeged
Event Dates: 2019. április
Related URLs: https://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/77650/
Uncontrolled Keywords: Gazdasági válság - Európai Unió
Additional Information: Bibliogr.: p. 273-274. ; ill. ; összefoglalás angol nyelven
Subjects: 05. Social sciences
05. Social sciences > 05.02. Economics and business
05. Social sciences > 05.06. Political science
Date Deposited: 2022. Dec. 06. 11:22
Last Modified: 2022. Dec. 06. 11:22
URI: http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/id/eprint/77664

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