Macroeconomic policy empirical analysis using an unrestricted standard VAR Model : the case of Mongolia

Burentegsh Dorjjugder and Elek Péter: Macroeconomic policy empirical analysis using an unrestricted standard VAR Model : the case of Mongolia.

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This paper is mainly about key fiscal policy indicators and their interrelations between each other. The model that is used in the analysis is the Vector Autoregressive Model. There are seven variables selected: GDP, Money Supply, Government Revenue, Government Expenditure, Export, Government Debt, and Global Copper Price. Besides VAR estimation, IRFs are computed to define how variables react to certain shocks. The key finding of the research is that both GDP and government revenue are sensitive to copper price changes and the resulting shock. Copper Price is an effective tool to predict these two variables in the shortrun. Government Revenue is an effective tool to impact export in the short-run. Government Debt is not an effective indicator to affect any variables except Government Expenditure. Money Supply is only effective for GDP. Government Expenditure is also not significantly effective in having an impact on other variables, but is weakly affected by Government Revenue, Copper Price, and Export. Most variables considered in the research belong to fiscal policy, thus, effective fiscal policy can be implemented using the results of this paper.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Heading title: Economic development and economic policy responses
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the European Union’s Contention in the Reshaping Global Economy
Date: 2022
ISBN: 978-963-306-852-6
Page Range: pp. 189-205
Language: English
Place of Publication: Szeged
Event Title: The European Union’s contention in the reshaping global economy (2022) (Szeged)
Related URLs:
DOI: 10.14232/eucrge.2022.11
Uncontrolled Keywords: Gazdaságpolitika - Mongólia
Additional Information: Bibliogr.: p. 203-205. ; ill. ; összefoglalás angol nyelven
Subjects: 05. Social sciences
05. Social sciences > 05.02. Economics and business
Date Deposited: 2022. Mar. 29. 13:57
Last Modified: 2022. Nov. 08. 13:09

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